2008년 10월의 브라질 지방선거 결과 관련 기사

2008년 10월의 브라질 지방선거 결과
 
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socialistworld.net에 있는 CWI의 기사
 
Brazil Ruling party maintains base in municipal elections
Economic storm-clouds threaten tumultuous change
Marcus Kollbrunner, Socialismo Revolucionário (CWI in Brazil), 7 October 2008
 
The results of the first round of municipal elections, which were held in Brazil on Sunday October 5, reflect the relative stability that has characterised the last year. The second round of municipal elections will be held on 26 October. In the 20 (out of 26) state capitals, where the sitting mayor was up for re-election, the incumbents were re-elected, in the first round in 13 cases, while the rest were elected in the second round, receiving the highest votes in all but one case.
 
The basis for this result lies in the relatively high rate of economic growth this year, over 5%, and with that lower unemployment, increases in wages (even if high inflation in food prices has had an effect, especially on the nation’s poorest), and higher consumption (based mostly on a strong increase in credit). The government of President Lula has used this situation to launch a propaganda campaign, portraying Brazil as a country heading for a long period of growth, and stability. On top of this, Lula has declared that the huge new oil reserves that have been discovered will provide for the “final solution” to problems in education, and health.
 
Lula has seen his approval rating reach record levels of close to 80%. This approval rating was based, not only on economic optimism, but also on programs of compensatory grants, which despite having little effect on the distribution of wealth, has gained Lula support, among poorer layers of the population.
 
The elections were predicted to strengthen the parties of the federal government. But that was not too difficult, as most of the bigger parties now support Lula’s government. His coalition has now 14 parties. But even his adversaries were careful not to speak out against Lula, during the election campaign. In Rio de Janeiro, four candidates competed for the title of the real “Lula-ists”!
 
The electoral campaign in Brazil is based totally on TV-adverts (which are free, and distributed according to previous electoral results), and paid electoral workers on the streets, and in the case of sitting mayors, the use of state machinery. The debate is more like a beauty contest, with no political debate, and with each of the main candidates trying to portray themselves as the best administrator: the one who built most schools and hospitals, and who will build even more.

PSOL in the elections
In this situation, PSOL (Party of Socialism and Liberty) had a difficult task, in propagating a project for a different society. This was the first time the party had stood in municipal elections. The party made some important gains, electing 8 councillors in 6 state capitals. PSOL had the councillor with the highest number of votes elected in Fortaleza (fourth biggest city in Brazil), João Alfredo (ex-deputy that came from PT (Workers’ Party – led by Lula). In Maceió (17th biggest city), Heloísa Helena (the party’s president, who came third in the presidential elections in 2006), was also elected, along with another PSOL candidate.
 
In Porto Alegre, capital of Rio Grande do Sul, and 10th biggest city, Luciana Genro, federal deputy for PSOL, stood for mayor, and got an excellent result of 9,2% (72,863 votes), and PSOL got Pedro Ruas elected as councillor, with the second highest vote. 
 
The two other federal deputies of the party also stood for mayor in São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro, were they lower results than expected. Ivan Valente got 42,616 votes (0,67%) in São Paulo, the largest city in Brazil, and fourth largest in the world. It was difficult terrain, as the election in the city was the stage for the most important battle of these elections, not only because of the importance of the city, but also because it represented a kind of dress rehearsal for the presidential elections in 2010.
 
Lula won’t be able to stand in the next election (only one re-election is permitted), and the party doesn’t have any candidate that has any expression in the polls yet. It’s vital for PT to try and build a base in São Paulo, were Lula lost against Alckmin (the president candidate for PSDB (Brazilian Social Democratic Party), the main opposition party), in 2006. On the other hand, there is a struggle over who will be the candidate for PSDB. The party was split in the elections in São Paulo, between Alckmin (ex-governor of São Paulo, who stood against Lula in 2006), and Kassab (the current mayor for DEM, a party that has an alliance with PSDB), who got the support of Serra (the current governor of São Paulo, who stood against Lula in 2002).
 
The result of the election was that Kassab won the first round, after for a long period at third place in the polls. He will stand in the second round against Marta (PT) who was ahead in the polls throughout campaign. Alckmin, who was second in the polls, suffered a crushing defeat, finishing third. This constituted a final blow to his chances of being the party’s presidential candidate in 2010.
 
PSOL also lost the 2 councillors (that came from PT) it had in Campinas, the third largest city in the state of São Paulo. In Rio de Janeiro, the second biggest city, Chico Alencar (the third federal deputy) got 1,8% (59,362 votes), after having been 4-5% in the polls. This was the result of the strong growth of Gabeira (PV, the Greens), who had a similar level of support in the polls in the beginning of the campaign, but ended up in second place, and in the second round. Although the Greens are not a left-wing party, it was perceived as a new alternative. But PSOL managed to get Eliomar Coelho (a councillor who came from PT) re-elected.
 
Alliances reflects shift to the right
The gains the party made in the election show that, even in this situation of relative stability, there is room for laying the basis for a coherent, left alternative. But unfortunately, the party has, since its foundation lost much of its initial radicalism. The tendency during its two first elections (2006 and 2008), has been to lower its profile in an attempt to increase its chances of getting parliamentary positions.
 
This was very clear in the electoral campaign in Porto Alegre, where the party made an electoral alliance with the Greens, the PV. In the council elections of 2004, the PV in the city made an alliance with the PP (Progressive Party), one of the most right wing parties, and heir of the Arena party, the party of the military dictatorship! The election campaign was based on a programme with a very low profile, and Luciana Genro even made TV-adverts using statements from her father, the Justice Minister in Lula’s government! On the top of all this, the party accepted a donation of 100,000 Real from Gerdau, a multinational steel corporation.
 
In Macapá, the capital of Amapá, the party stood in an alliance with PSB (Brazilian Socialist Party), a “centre-left” party, whose candidate for mayor came first, in the first round, and has a chance of winning the second round. That would mean that the party there, would participate in the administration of the state capital, together with a bourgeois party!
 
This will lead to a crucial debate for the future of the party. Socialismo Revolucionário (CWI’s section in Brazil), argued that the party should only make alliances with worker’s parties, like PSTU (United Socialist Workers’ Party), and PCB (Communist Party), but the majority of the national electoral conference voted for a more “flexible” approach. However, many in the party reacted when PSOL accepted money from Gerdau, and there is the basis for a debate about the future of the party. After the election, the left bloc that SR has been building together with other left groups in PSOL, is going to call meetings, to draw up a balance sheet of the election. As a result of our work in Rio de Janeiro, a new group, Socialist Reaction, has joined the bloc, which now has adopted the name Socialist Resistance, made up of five groups, with a presence in nine states.
 
SR and CLS results
Socialismo Revolucionário stood with candidates in three cities. In Taboão da Serra, a smaller city in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, where Socialismo Revolucionário has an important base in the teachers union, one comrade stood for mayor, and one for councillor. Miguel Leme, from the teachers union, got 645 votes (0,48%) for mayor, and Edemilon, also a teacher, got 58 votes. In Campinas comrade Raquel stood as councillor, and got 527 votes, and was the 5th most voted candidate of the party. In Campinas, our group has more than doubled during this year, and could make a very good election campaign, and gain new members. We also stood a comrade in Fortaleza (Ceará state), in a campaign to build a base in the city.
 
In the city of São Paulo, we participated in the campaign of Ronaldo, from CLS (Socialist Liberty Collective). We have been working closely with the CLS, and have the perspective of fusing our forces at the beginning of next year. Ronaldo is a known activist in his community, a favela (shantytown) that struggles for urbanisation of the area. He got an excellent 2,164 votes, and was the 5th most voted-for of the council candidates for PSOL.
 
In Niterói, city next to Rio de Janeiro, we supported the campaign of Manoel Martins, an 84 year old left activist, launched by Socialist Reaction. He got 1,201 votes, and got the third highest vote for PSOL in the city. In Rio de Janeiro we supported Babá, an ex-federal deputy, and member of CST (Brazilian section of UST), who got 8,010 votes, and got the second highest PSOL vote, but was not elected.
 
Perspectives
This period of stability won’t last for long. Lula, and his government, have during the last year, denied that Brazil will be affected by the world economic crisis. In fact, Brazil is in a much better position than in previous financial crisis, with a record monetary reserve, of over 200 billion dollars in the central bank. Because of the country’s history of financial crisis, the financial sector is much more regulated, but the country is not immune for the storms in the financial markets. The day after the election (October 6), the stock exchange plunged 15% in the morning, reflecting the international turmoil. The stock exchange is among the biggest losers this year, as the recent drop in commodity prices hit the giants of Petrobras (oil), and Vale (mining). The Real, which has being strengthened during the last years, because of an inflow of capital, and positive balance of trade, has fallen almost 40% in two months against the dollar.
 
But the real effect of the crisis on Brazil will come as the recession bites the world economy. Brazil’s growth has been based on a favourable world market, but also in a strong growth of credit. These two factors are now reversing, and we will probably see a big drop in growth the coming period, and with that a rise in unemployment. The bosses are preparing for more confrontation, there are much more attacks on trade unions, coordinated with the state, in a real wave of criminalisation of workers organisations, and social movements. It is becoming much more common to have trade unions fined for holding meetings outside factory gates, leafleting, or holding marches. Earlier this year, there was even an attempt to attack the MST (the mighty landless workers movement) by the local authorities, in Rio Grande do Sul.
 
The left in Brazil has a big responsibility to build a united fight back, in the political arena, but also in the trade unions, and social movements. To political debate within PSOL must be seen against this background. We stand in elections to defend the interest of the workers, and elect spokespeople for the struggle. Parliamentary seats are not an end in themselves. The political price for making opportunistic alliances with bourgeois parties is not new to the workers movement. The failure of PT is a testimony to that.
 
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President Lula's party suffers defeats in Brazil mayoral elections
Guardian, AP foreign, Monday October 27 2008
 
The Workers' Party suffered another defeat in Porto Alegre, the capital of the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, seen as a traditional bastion of Lula's faction. Mayor Jose Fogaca of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) won re-election with 59 per cent of the vote against the Workers' Party's Maria do Rosario with 41 per cent.
 
Runoffs were held in 11 state capitals and 19 other large cities after no candidates achieved a majority of votes in the first round of voting on October 5. According to Brazilian law, runoffs are held only in cities with populations of more than 200,000.
 
The centrist PMDB was seen as the big winner in the elections. The party, which is the largest faction in Congress, now leads 1,200 of 5,567 cities in Brazil, including many of the largest and more politically important municipalities, such as Rio de Janeiro, Salvador de Bahia, Florianopolis and Porto Alegre.
 
The Workers' Party, in contrast, won in six of the 26 state capitals and in 550 cities overall. In Rio, PMDB candidate Fernando Paes won the mayoral election with less than 51 per cent of the vote against the Green Party's Fernando Gabeira, a guerilla in the 1960s during Brazil's military dictatorship.
 
Despite its success at the ballot box, the PMDB was not expected to field a presidential candidate in 2010 but to support the coalition with the best chances of victory. "No one can govern Brazil today without the PMDB," commentator Cristiana Lobo said on the television network Globonews. 
 
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브라질 지방선거 결선투표 연립여권 승리 (상파울루=연합뉴스, 김재순 특파원, 2008-10-27 09:21)
野, 상파울루市 승리..2010년 대선 발판 마련
 
26일(현지시간) 브라질에서 실시된 지방선거 결선투표 결과 연립여권이 대승을 거둔 것으로 나타났다. 전국 5천563개 시 가운데 지난 5일 1차 투표 결과 과반수 득표자가 없어 시장 당선자를 내지 못한 30개 시에서 실시된 이날 결선투표에서는 연립여권을 이끌고 있는 브라질 민주운동당(PMDB)과 노동자당(PT)이 각각 8명씩의 당선자를 냈다. 반면 제1 야당인 브라질 사회민주당(PSDB)은 4명, 제2 야당인 민주당(DEM)은 1명의 당선자를 내는데 그치면서 1차 투표에 이어 열세를 면치 못했다.
 
1차 투표와 결선투표 결과를 합치면 PMDB가 1천204명, PSDB가 785명, PT가 556명, DEM이 496명의 시장을 보유하게 됐다. 이밖에 범여권을 구성하고 있는 14개 정당에 포함돼 있는 진보당(PP)이 549명, 브라질 노동당(PTB)이 417명, 공화당(PR)이 386명, 민주노동당(PDT)이 344명, 브라질 사회당(PSB)이 311명의 시장을 확보했다.
 
이번 지방선거는 오는 2010년 실시되는 대선 및 총선의 전초전으로 간주되고 있으며, 연립여권이 압승을 거두면서 유리한 기반을 구축한 것으로 평가되고 있다. 브라질 내 정치 전문가들은 연립여권이 후보 단일화를 이룰 경우 2010년 대선은 물론 총선에서도 무난한 승리를 거둘 수 있을 것으로 전망했다.
 
야권은 그러나 최대 격전지로 꼽혀온 상파울루 시장 선거에서 DEM 후보가 루이스 이나시오 룰라 다 실바 대통령의 지원을 등에 업은 PT 후보에게 큰 표차로 승리를 거두면서 한 가닥 희망을 가질 수 있게 됐다. 브라질 현행 선거법은 대통령직 3차례 연임을 금지하고 있으며, 이에 따라 개헌이 이루어지지 않는 한 이미 연임에 성공한 룰라 대통령이 2010년 대선에 출마할 수는 없다.
 
브라질 연립여권에서는 PT 소속의 딜마 호우세피 수석장관과 PSB 소속 시로 고메스 전 국민통합부 장관(현 연방하원의원)을 유력한 차기 주자로 꼽고 있다. 호우세피 장관은 룰라 대통령의 두터운 신임을 받고 있는데다 브라질 사상 첫 여성대통령 탄생이라는 흥행요소도 안고 있다. 야권에서는 상파울루 시장 선거의 야권 승리에 힘입어 PSDB 소속 조제 세하 상파울루 주지사가 가장 유리한 고지를 점한 것으로 평가되고 있으며, 같은 당 소속 아에시오 네베스 미나스 제라이스 주지사도 후보군에 포함되고 있다.
 
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브라질 집권당, 대도시 지방선거 패배 (내일, 아르헨티나 임석훈 통신원, 2008-10-28 오전 11:58:22)
룰라 대통령 인기와 정당 지지는 무관
 
26일(현지시간) 30개 도시에서 실시된 브라질 지방선거 2차 투표(결선)에서 집권여당 노동자당은 상파울로와 포르토 알레그레 살바도르 등 정치적 비중이 큰 3대 도시에서 일제히 패배했다. 그결과 남미 최고의 지도자로 부상한 룰라 다 실바 대통령(사진)은 3선 출마를 금지한 브라질 헌법에 따라 2010년 대통령선거 후 물러난다고 일간 ‘라나시온’이 전했다.
 
전반적인 성적을 보면 여권의 압승이었다. 결선이 치러진 79개 도시 중 60개 도시에서 노동자당과 연정 파트너인 민주운동당이 승리했다. 하지만 현지 언론은 3대 도시에서 노동자당이 패한 데 한층 무게를 실었다. ‘라나시온’은 “정권탈환을 노리는 브라질 야당이 결정적인 승리를 쟁취했다”면서 “노동자당은 사실상 선거에 패했다”는 극단적인 평가까지 했다.
 
룰라 대통령에겐 열화 같은 지지를 보내는 브라질이지만 핵심 선거구에서 유권자가 집권여당에 등을 돌렸다는 게 노동자당의 고민이다. 이에 대해 현지 언론은 “룰라 대통령에 대한 인기와 집권여당에 대한 지지가 분리돼 있다는 점이 대선을 준비해야 할 노동자당의 큰 과제로 부상했다”고 분석했다.
 
노동자당으로선 상파울로 정·부시장 선거에서 대패한 게 특히 큰 상처로 남았다. 상파울로에선 마르타 수플리시(여) 노동자당 후보가 재선에 도전한 민주당의 힐베르토 카사브 현 시장에 득표율 20포인트 차로 밀렸다.
 
이번 선거에서 카사프 현 시장은 차기 대선 출마를 노리고 있는 호세 세라 상파울로 주지사의 전폭적인 지지를 받았다. 세라 주지사는 2002년 대선에서 룰라 대통령과 경합한 야당 거물이다. 현지 언론은 “이번 선거를 통해 세라 주지사가 유력한 야권 차기대권주자로의 이미지를 완전히 굳혔다”고 전했다. 
 
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Local defeat for Brazil's ruling Workers' Party a setback for Lula
TOM HENNIGAN in São Paulo, Tuesday, October 28, 2008, The Irish Times
 
AFTER A CAMPAIGN in which it was accused of stirring up homophobia, Brazil's ruling Workers' Party suffered a crushing defeat in the battle for control of South America's biggest city on Sunday. São Paulo's mayor, Gilberto Kassab of the opposition conservative Democrats, won 61 per cent of the vote in a run-off round against just 39 per cent for Workers' Party candidate Marta Suplicy.
 
Ms Suplicy's campaign was dogged by controversy after it ran ads asking of the bachelor Mr Kassab: "Is he married? Does he have children?" which drew a stinging rebuke from the city's gay community, most of which had been backing her. She had been tipped as a possible presidential candidate for the Workers' Party to replace president Lula da Silva ("Lula") in 2010 but her defeat on Sunday has all but ended those hopes.
 
The big winner in the São Paulo race aside from Mr Kassab was José Serra, the state's governor. From the opposition Social Democrats, he strongly backed Mr Kassab, whose victory reinforces Mr Serra's position as the most powerful leader of the opposition and its likely candidate for president in 2010.
 
The Workers' Party did score important victories in cities in greater São Paulo but lost high-profile contests for state capitals in Porto Alegre and Salvador. This raises doubts about how much of Lula's massive popularity can be transferred to party candidates. This will particularly trouble the ambitions of Dilma Rousseff, Lula's chief of staff and widely considered his choice of successor in 2010. A former Marxist guerrilla, she is considered a tough and able technocrat but lacking in charisma or personal base within the party.
 
In Brazil's third city of Belo Horizonte, a candidate backed by both the Workers' Party and Social Democrats won easily. It was the first time the two bitterest rivals in Brazilian politics fought a major campaign together, long a dream of many Brazilians frustrated that the country's two main progressive political movements would rather form alliances with corrupt and right-wing parties than work together.
 
The alliance's victory is a boost for the presidential ambitions of the man who put it together - Aécio Neves, governor of Minas Gerias state, of which Belo Horizonte is the capital. Neves has called his local Workers' Party-Social Democrat alliance an "embryo" for what could occur on the national stage.